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Can the Denver Broncos slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? History says no

Sunday will mark 1,908 days since the Broncos last beat the Chiefs.

It was Sept. 17, 2015, when Denver, led by Peyton Manning, scored 14 points in the fourth quarter to overcome a touchdown deficit and beat Kansas City 31-24. The Broncos, of course, would go on to win Super Bowl 50.

Oh, how things have changed.

The Chiefs have not only won the last 10 meetings, but have done so by a staggering margin of victory of 13.7 points per game. While the Broncos have taken a turn for the worst since 2015, going a combined 31-44 over the last five seasons, the Chiefs have become an NFL powerhouse going a combined 56-19 and winning Super Bowl LIV.

And it appears that Sunday night, the 10-1 Chiefs have a high percentage of making the 4-7 Broncos wait at least another year before letting them win.

“The last few years it’s been harder because they have a really good team,” coach Vic Fangio said of beating the Chiefs. “They’re a really good football team. I think they’ve only lost once in the last 25 games — something like that.”

The biggest reason the Chiefs have had the Broncos’ number over the last several years can be attributed to one man: Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes, the 2018-19 NFL MVP, is 6-0 in his career against the Broncos, totaling 1,507 passing yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions.

“The only modern quarterback — modern meaning the last 20-25 years — that I can really compare him to is Aaron Rodgers,” Fangio said. “I think (President of Football Operations/General Manager) John Elway was kind of Patrick Mahomes in the ’80s and ’90s and since then I think it’s Aaron Rodgers for sure. Those two guys have some very similar qualities.”

So, what is it that makes Mahomes so difficult to defend?

Well, everything.

“He likes everything on the smorgasbord,” Fangio said. “He’s got a lot of guys he can throw to. He’s very good at throwing short, intermediate, and deep. He’s very good at throwing on the move. So, to say, ‘If you take this one thing away from Mahomes, you’re going to have a good day,’ that’s just not the case with him. He’s too versatile in all aspects of playing his position.”

Entering Sunday, Mahomes leads the NFL in total QBR at 86.1. Denver’s Drew Lock is 30th with 41.1. Mahomes also leads the league in passing yards with 3,497. Lock is 29th with 1,767. And Mahomes is third in touchdowns with 30. Lock is 29th with seven.

“He’s just one of those once-every-generation players,” outside linebacker Bradley Chubb said. “He’s good with his feet. He uses his feet to make plays downfield with the receivers they got. So, he’s one of those — he’s just a spark for their team and he’s the catalyst to their team. Everything they do revolves around him. I feel like that’s what makes them so special is because he’s special.”

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It doesn’t help that Mahomes has arguably the fastest player in the NFL on his team in wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who is coming off a 269-yard, three-touchdown performance against Tampa Bay. Fangio compared Hill to the great Bo Jackson, saying “Hill is definitely the fastest receiver I’ve seen my days in the NFL — and that’s a lot of days.”

Mahomes also shares a backfield with talented running backs like three-time Pro Bowler Le’Veon Bell and star rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. And who can forget tight end Travis Kelce, who is third in the league in receiving yards this season with 978, trailing on Seattle’s DK Metcalf and Hill, who has 1,021.

Take all of that talent and add coach Andy Reid to the mix — who is regarded as one of the brightest offensive minds in football — and it’s no wonder the Chiefs have had a top-six offense in the league, finishing first in 2018 and on pace to do so again this season.

“Andy’s become a better play caller just through experience like we all do, but his weapons allow him to be a really good play caller,” Fangio said. “The quarterback is special, the receivers are special, the tight end is special, they’ve gotten two really good running backs now. He’s got a lot available to him to call and players to highlight. They’ll spread you out a good bit more than most teams and he’s having fun with it and he’s doing a great job with it too.”

The one thing — if anything — the Broncos have going for them Sunday is Fangio, who has Denver rated as the No. 2 defense in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. They’re second in coverage, fifth in rush defense and 12th in pass rush. 

But they lack in turnovers, ranking 27th in the league with only 11 this season. The Broncos’ offense ranks last in the NFL in giveaways with 26, which isn’t a good recipe for success. 

If they want to pull off an upset, they’re going to have to likely force several turnovers and not commit any themselves. 

“The No. 1 important thing is you have to have takeaways,” safety Justin Simmons said. “They’re a great offense and they have a great offensive scheme. I just named the guys and what they do well. The biggest thing is you’re going to have to have takeaways. You go back and look at the AFC semifinal game, they were down 24-0, and before halftime, they were tied, or they were up by a touchdown. They can score in an instant, so you have to have takeaways. 

“Those are the things on the defensive side of the ball that we have to do to produce and to set our offense up on a short field. Take the ball away from them moving down the field.”

The odds are clearly stacked against the Broncos — not as much as last Sunday when they played without a quarterback against the Saints, but still, the odds are as high as they’ve ever been against the Chiefs over the last few years.

If Week 7’s matchup — a 43-16 loss at home to the Chiefs — was any indication of what’s to come again, the Broncos could be in for a long night. And come Monday, it might be 1,909 days since the Broncos’ last victory over their divisional rival. 

“When you play a team this talented, this versatile, and this spread out — there’s not one absolute way to play it,” Fangio said. “You’re just going to have to mix it up and there’s going to be guys with hard downs at different times and we’ve got to win those hard downs when the ball goes that way.

“If we don’t, we’ll struggle.”

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