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Gambling: Chiefs WR Hill could soar in playoff game

By No User January 22, 2021 | updated 5 years ago

Every week through the Super Bowl, I will attempt, using tools and stats from FTNBets.com, to slay the sportsbooks, scribbling my favorite side, total or prop picks for the week’s upcoming NFL slate.

Some will win. Many will lose.

Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you. With the Conference Championships on tap this weekend, here are three picks worth diving into: 

Tyreek Hill OVER 77.5 receiving yards (DraftKings, -112)

Hill’s speed is on par with Dash from The Incredibles. He’s a blur in the open field, a wide receiver who no defender can wrangle when he shifts into high gear. Taron Johnson is one such individual. Buffalo’s primary slot corner will have a clear target on his back. Hill, who lines up in the slot 57.7% of the time, is sure to be the apple of a wounded Patrick Mahomes’ eye. This season, Johnson has given up a generous 73.2% catch percentage and 1.42 yards per snap. Hill’s receiver’s electricity and versatility present a substantial mismatch. He fell short of the over number four times in his last six and registered a season-low 20 yards versus the Bills in Week 6. However, atmospheric conditions in the prior matchup were suboptimal as a wind-driven rain hindered both teams. With weather expected to be more scoring conducive the second time around, Hill picks up from where he left off last week against Cleveland (8-110-0). 

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Featured Local Savings

Davante Adams OVER 87.5 receiving yards (DraftKings, -112)

There likely isn’t enough kryptonite available to slow down Green Bay’s Superman. Adams is a route tactician equipped with decisiveness on par with NFL greats. Whether on quick slants or posts, he consistently generates breathing room, rendering any man coverage useless. During the regular season he ranked No. 1 in yards after the catch and top-five in several additional categories. Enticing at least 10 targets in five of his last six contests, he should surpass the above total for the eighth time this season. His assignment, Carlton Davis, played brilliantly last week in New Orleans, forcing Michael Thomas to choke down box score doughnuts. Still, Adams is a much stiffer challenge for a corner who’s surrendered a generous 1.40 yards per snap in 15 games. Bank on at least seven receptions for 90-plus yards and a score. 

Leonard Fournette OVER 22.5 receiving yards (BetMGM, -110)

Equipped with the fuel efficiency of a 70s-era Oldsmobile Cutlass Supreme, Fournette is a primary target of analytics aficionados everywhere. His 2.71 YAC per attempt and woeful 13.5 missed tackle percentage during the regular season made him a central subject of ridicule. Still, Tampa’s runner is a critical offensive piece, a multipurpose back who is one of Tom Brady’s favorite safety blankets. Utilized heavily in the pass game, he typically runs 15-20 routes per game. With Ronald Jones fighting through a quad injury, he hauled in a combined nine receptions for 83 yards against the Fighting Footballs and Saints. Including the divisional round, Green Bay surrendered 5.4 receptions and 45.5 receiving yards per game to running backs this season. Jones will again split work, but in any passing situation Fournette is sure to dominate snap share. Essentially, he’s Brady’s latest version of James White. 

Contact Tom Roeder: 636-0240

Twitter: @xroederx

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