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Drew Lock, Justin Fields or Trey Lance? National draft experts weigh-in on Broncos QB situation ahead of NFL Draft

Broncos Country, choose your fighter: Drew Lock, Justin Fields or Trey Lance. 

That’s the decision new general manager George Paton and the Broncos will have to make a week from Thursday at the NFL draft. Holding the No. 9 pick and having several positions of need, including quarterback, Denver has become one of the most intriguing teams in the top 10. 

Lock, who started 13 games last season in his second year with the Broncos, is the presumed starter heading into 2021, but after a less-than-stellar performance last year, he’ll likely have to compete for his job this offseason. Fields, who started two seasons at Ohio State, seems to be the Broncos’ favorite rookie quarterback, but is likely not going to fall to nine. And Lance, who started 17 games at North Dakota State, is maybe the biggest project among the top rookie quarterbacks and could fall into Denver’s lap.

So, who should the Broncos choose? Here’s what draft analysts have said over the past week.

“I know Drew has had some ups and downs, but you see the flashes of what he can do,” NFL Network draft expert Daniel Jeremiah said. “So if you’re asking me if they’re sticking and picking and they’re picking there at No. 9 and either Lance or Fields were there, even though you have some other areas and even though you can make a case — let’s give Drew Lock a little more time — I couldn’t pass up either (Fields or Lance) if they were to get there to No. 9.”

The case for Lock

Broncos Panthers Football

Broncos quarterback Drew Lock looks to pass vs. Carolina on Dec. 1, 2020, in Charlotte, N.C.

The Associated Press

Broncos Panthers Football

Broncos quarterback Drew Lock looks to pass vs. Carolina on Dec. 1, 2020, in Charlotte, N.C.






Most analysts have agreed that Fields or Lance would likely be an upgrade over Lock, especially if the Broncos don’t have to give anything up to land either. But it’s assumed the Broncos will have to give up some draft capital to get Fields or Lance. 

And that’s where the case for Lock comes in. While he struggled tremendously at times last year, he also showed some promise — especially in the back half of the season. 

“I think it’s unfair to make a full evaluation of, is he or is he not the guy,” ESPN NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky said. “Last year was tough, right? (Courtland) Sutton’s down, the offseason, COVID — there were a lot of challenges thrown at him.”

Orlovsky makes a valid point. Only 18 starts in the NFL — 13 of which came during the pandemic season — is probably not enough to judge Lock on. But if Fields or Lance falls to them at nine, it’s probably too much to pass up on. 

“If I was Denver, I would definitely be trying to go get Justin Fields or Trey Lance strictly because the physical talent is so intriguing,” said Olovsky, who played eight years in the NFL at quarterback. “But I don’t know if it’s ‘let’s mortgage the future to go get one of (Fields or Lance).’ Because I still feel like Drew’s got talent and I think going off of last year is a very, very unfair thing to do with a young quarterback.”

The case for Fields

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Justin Fields

Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields runs against Alabama during the College Football Playoff championship game Jan. 11 in Miami Gardens, Fla.

The Associated Press

Justin Fields

Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields runs against Alabama during the College Football Playoff championship game Jan. 11 in Miami Gardens, Fla.






Fields is maybe the easiest case to make. 

Coming into last season with Ohio State, Fields was considered the No. 2 quarterback prospect behind only Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence. Many, including ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., still believe he is, despite him being mocked by most analysts to be the fourth or fifth quarterback taken. 

Right now, few have any idea where he could land. 

“That’s the million dollar question,” Kiper Jr. said. “I could see him going to Denver at nine. I could see someone trading up to 10 to get him or trading up to seven ahead of Denver to get him, or force Denver to go from nine to seven with Detroit to get him.”

What’s intriguing about Fields, and maybe worth trading up for, is he’s far and away the best athlete among the top quarterbacks in this draft. He runs 4.4-second 40-yard dash, he’s 6-foot-3, 228 pounds and can throw the ball 70-80 yards on a dime. 

“Justin Fields to me is exactly where the NFL is trending as far as his physical skill set,” ESPN college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit said. “The way the game is evolving and changing and you got a guy that is physically as gifted as he is and has played as many big games and has performed incredibly well and his teammates want to play for him, I don’t know. That’s a hard one to pass on for me personally.”

The case for Lance

Like Fields, Lance is a mystery. Some believe the 49ers will take him at three. Others say the Falcons will grab him at four. And more are starting to think the Broncos might have a chance at nine — Kiper actually has Lance falling right to Denver at nine.

What makes Lance different from the other top quarterbacks this year is his inexperience. He only started 17 games in college and played only one game last season due to COVID-19. 

“But what he did in 2019 stands for itself — 16-0, throws for over 2,700 yards, 28 touchdowns, doesn’t throw an interception, over 1,100 yards rushing,” Herbstreit said. “His physical traits and abilities, speak for themselves.”

And that’s what makes Lance worth taking a flier on. While he may be a long-term project and might even need to sit his rookie year, his athletic ability is what the Broncos should consider when looking at him in the draft. 

“Everything you have you love, and the things that aren’t maybe where you want them, are all correctable,” Jeremiah said. “That’s why, yeah, I’m in. I know the limited number of games. I get all that. But when you have a guy with this skill set and then you match the skill set with the intelligence that he has, he’s going to figure it out. I firmly believe it.”

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