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Gambling: Favorite pics, short props for Monday’s MLB games

By Chris Meaney FTN April 25, 2021 | updated 4 years ago

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There are 11 games on the MLB schedule for Monday, so there’s plenty of action on the board. Below you’ll find a few of my favorite picks and shot props. If you’re looking for more bets this season, check out the FTN Bet Tracker at FTNBets.com. Make sure you check out FTN’s free Parlay Calculator to get the best possible odds.

New York Yankees -175 (BetAmerica) at Baltimore Orioles +162 (William Hill) — O/U 8.5

The Yankees and Orioles open up a four-game series Monday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Both teams enter with 9-12 records that have them tied for last place in the AL East. The Yankees surprisingly rank at the bottom of the division in runs scored with 75, 44 behind the league-leading Boston Red Sox.

This is a good spot for New York to get going on offense as they’ll face Matt Harvey. The Orioles’ pitcher enters with an 84.6 contact percentage, the second-highest mark in baseball (min. 19 innings pitched). Harvey has yet to pitch into the sixth inning, and he’s allowed at least six hits in three of his four outings. He gave up three runs on eight hits over five innings in his last start against Miami, which brought his ERA to 5.12 on the season. Right-handed hitters are slashing .346/.370/.500 with a .376 wOBA against Harvey and the Yankees have a few strong right-handed bats in their lineup.

The Yankees will give the ball to Deivi García for the first time this season. The righty has a decent 33:6 K:BB over his 34.1 big league innings, but he’s allowed six homers and 19 earned runs. Good thing for García, the O’s check in with the fourth-highest strikeout rate and they have the second-worst wOBA to go along with a bottom-five ISO. I don’t get involved with run lines often but there are a lot of favorites on the board this evening, so consider NYY -1.5 which you can get at BetAmerica (-112). Ultimately, I think we’ll see over 8.5 runs scored in the game.

Prediction: 6-3, Yankees

Best bet: Over 8.5, NYY -1.5

Prop bet: Aaron Judge to homer

     

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Featured Local Savings

Colorado Rockies +143 (William Hill) @ San Francisco Giants -154 (William Hill) — O/U 7.5

The Rockies begin a seven-game road trip in San Francisco Monday night with wins in four of their last five games. Colorado beat Philadelphia 12-2 Sunday for their second straight series win. Austin Gomber will make his fifth start of the season, while Anthony DeSclafani gets the ball for the Giants.

DeSclafani checks in with a rock-solid 2.14 ERA and 57.4 GB%. Gomber only has a 41 GB%, which usually isn’t a winning recipe at Coors Field, but he’s limited the damage this season (3.38 ERA), and he’s fresh off a great start against the Astros where he only allowed two runs on two hits over six innings en route to his first win. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in each of his four outings, and he’s completed six innings in three consecutive starts.

Consider taking under 7.5 run total as both teams rank in the bottom 10 in wOBA. Colorado’s .243 wOBA on the road is the second-lowest mark in baseball, and the Giants have a slightly lower wOBA at home (.295) than on the road. Gomber and DeSclafani are not big strikeout pitchers, but both teams rank inside the top 10 in strikeout percentage.

Prediction: 3-2, Rockies

Best bet: Under 7.5

Prop bet: Trevor Story O 1.5 Total Bases

Other bets to consider: Astros; Braves; MIA @ MIL U 7

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