SONDERMANN | A dozen takeaways from Colorado’s 2022 primary election
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Eric Sondermann
Eric Sondermann
Here we are on the day after. Tuesday’s primaries yielded some clear verdicts. Even if the election was distinctly secondary in the day’s news, behind the jaw-dropping testimony of a courageous, poised, young White House aide as to the unambiguous, unhinged, coup-driven conduct of our former president on Jan. 6 and in the days leading up to it.
Given no shortage of Colorado Republican candidates continuing to push the poisonous Trump lie, the thread connecting those events to yesterday’s races was unmistakable. With that by way of preface, here are my dozen takeaways from the Colorado primary.
1. It was a clear victory for the serious, sane, grounded, traditional wing of the Republican Party. In one top race after another, with only the exception of Rep. Lauren Boebert’s expected renomination in that safe GOP district, there was no doubt as to the intent of voters to put forward grown-up candidates with the opportunity to be competitive come November.
2. Save for a couple of down-ballot Democratic races in Denver which we will get to later, most races were not close. It was not a late election night. Of the top-tier contests, Heidi Ganahl’s margin over Greg Lopez for the gubernatorial nomination was the thinnest. And that was still a spread of over seven points.
3. Again with the Boebert exception, the election was a wholesale rejection of 2020 election deniers. Ron Hanks lost big in the Senate race. Tina Peters, running for Secretary of State, could not even break the 30 percent threshold and finished a weak third. In the new 8th Congressional District, Lori Saine barely eclipsed 20 percent, also coming in third. Of course, the great thing about denying elections is that you never have to accept the results and take them to heart.
4. Final numbers still await, but it is clear that unaffiliated voters made a significant impact. Over 331,000 unafiliateds submitted ballots with close to 60 percent of them voting in the GOP primary given the lack of real contests on the other side. Given that there were a total of roughly 570,000 votes in the Republican primary, unaffiliateds comprised a substantial share. The point of the ballot issue giving unaffiliated voters the seamless ability to participate in primaries was to moderate and temper the political extremes. Consider that mission accomplished in 2022.
5. As I tweeted last night, that whirring you heard was the sound of vast sums of Democratic dark money being flushed on cynical efforts to boost extreme GOP candidates. That number going down the toilet may have been as much as $5 million. Though the tactic worked in other states, it fell flat in Colorado. Hooray for that. Given the seriousness of what took place in the aftermath of the 2020 election, how can any Democrat of conscience play disingenuous financial footsy with far-right purveyors of nonsense?
6. Senate nominee Joe O’Dea brings to mind Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, a businessman and similar political outsider who ousted a longtime incumbent, Democrat Russ Feingold, in the Republican banner year of 2010. We will see how O’Dea fares under the bright lights. Though his Tuesday victory speech showed signs that he is quite ready. Sen. Michael Bennet may well have a race on his hands.While other Democratic Senate seats are even more vulnerable, strategists have recently evidenced concern that Bennet’s slot could be at risk in a big off-year wave.
7. Of all the Republican candidates, Heidi Ganahl faces the heaviest lift in trying to dislodge Gov. Jared Polis. She needs to quickly demonstrate readiness for prime time. A starting point would be to offer a simple, clear, declarative sentence on the validity of Joe Biden’s election. That is a task that has, so far, eluded her. Beyond that, she cannot thrive while being in open warfare with the state’s dominant television station, 9News.
8. A question for incumbent Secretary of State Jena Griswold: Are you prepared to return all of the campaign money you raised in fearmongering about the only opponent you mentioned, Tina Peters? Didn’t think so. Instead, Griswold will face her polar opposite in former Jefferson County Clerk Pam Anderson. To the extent that crossover voting is still a thing, look to Anderson’s ability to attract some bipartisan support in her pledge to return that office to a less partisan, more administrative operation.
9. Once again, Rep. Doug Lamborn beat back myriad challengers. He seems to have a lifetime sinecure, much the same as his Democratic counterpart, Rep. Diana DeGette.In the retiring Ed Perlmutter’s Congressional District 7, his heir apparent, Brittany Pettersen, would have preferred to run against Tim Reichert but instead drew military veteran Erik Aadland. Given a Republican tailwind, this could be a close race. Though look for the overturn of Roe v. Wade to provide an assist to Pettersen in suburban Jefferson County. Newly-formed Congressional District 8 is as “swingy” as any district in the country. It will feature a faceoff between two able legislators, Democrat Yadira Caraveo and Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer. If there is to be a GOP wave this year, and if a GOP rebound in Colorado is in the offing, it will start here.
10. On that score, 2022 is a year of opportunity for Colorado Republicans without parallel since their decline began nearly two decades back. They passed the first test with the primary election and the comfortable victory of responsible, lucid types. But November still awaits. If Republicans don’t rack up major victories this fall, one wonders what that will take and if it is ever in store.
11. The Democratic ballot, for the most part, was a yawner of renominations and uncontested races. Though two Denver contests drew attention, both pitting a more establishment Democrat against one from the party’s animated, progressive ranks. In both, the establishment candidate looks to be prevailing, though by the thinnest of margins. Running for a seat on the CU Board of Regents, Johnnie Nguyen leads Wanda James by 131 votes out of almost 65,000 cast. In a bitter battle in State House District 6, Katie March is defeating Elisabeth Epps by all of 34 votes.
12. Finally, given once more the overwhelming disconnect between the activist base that holds sway at party assemblies and the far larger mass of voters participating in primaries, can we please, belatedly, but blessedly put out of its misery Colorado’s antiquated, polarizing system of caucuses and assemblies? If the recent GOP experience does not put a nail in this coffin, what will? Word is that there will be a bipartisan bill in the next legislature to accomplish this feat. At last.
Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. He writes regularly for ColoradoPolitics and the Gazette newspapers. Reach him at EWS@EricSondermann.com; follow him at @EricSondermann