Democratic candidates are winning the money race in nearly all of the most competitive elections for the Colorado House of Representatives.

Campaign finance data released Monday shows that Democrats are out-fundraising their Republican opponents in nine of the 10 House races projected to be the most competitive, according to reports from the Secretary of State’s Office. In seven of the 10 races, the Democratic fundraising advantage has increased since previous campaign finance reports from Aug. 1. 

This comes as the November election has the potential to bring big changes to Colorado’s House of Representatives. Last year, the state redrew its district boundaries, moving many sitting lawmakers, changing the political balance of each district, and making several House seats competitive for the first time in a decade.

While Democrats aren’t at risk of losing control of the chamber — enjoying a whopping 41-24 majority — Republican candidates have a shot at flipping a substantial number of seats to create a nearly evenly split Legislature, though Republican candidates will now have to overcome a significant fundraising deficit in all but one of the most competitive races.

Colorado Politics identified the most politically competitive state House districts by looking at the estimated competitiveness from the Independent Redistricting Commission’s report, in addition to the most recent active voter registration numbers from August.

With only seven weeks remaining until the Nov. 8 election, here are where the top 10 most competitive House races stand for fundraising:

House District 38: David Ortiz (D) v. Jaylen Mosqueira (R)

Fundraising total: $222,540.54

Party advantage: $122,002.90 toward Democrats

Democratic Rep. David Ortiz is running for reelection to represent District 38 in Arapahoe and Jefferson counties. Ortiz beat his opponent by just over 11 percentage points when he won the seat in 2020, but he is now facing a redrawn district with more registered Republicans than Democrats. This potentially leaves the door open for the GOP to flip the seat with Republican candidate Jaylen Mosqueira, a legislative aide who ran unopposed in his primary.

Mosqueira has a difficult fight ahead of him with Ortiz earning $172,000 in fundraising — over three times more than Mosqueira’s $50,000. Ortiz has the highest fundraising total of any candidate on this list, in addition to just under $1,500 in leftover funds from his previous campaign. While Ortiz was already leading fundraising by $62,000 in August, the fundraising gap grew by more than $60,000 in just a month — the largest change of any race on this list. Ortiz has spent over $58,000 so far, leaving him with nearly $116,000 on hand. Mosqueira has spent around $12,600.

House District 38 leans 2.9% toward Democrats according to the redistricting analysis, but has a larger Republican population, with around 800 more Republican voters than Democrats. In total, the district’s over 64,000 active registered voters are 27.6% Republican, 26.3% Democratic and 44.4% unaffiliated.

House District 26: Meghan Lukens (D) v. Savannah Wolfson (R)

Fundraising total: $181,085.96

Party advantage: $41,848.90 toward Democrats

The District 26 seat was left open by Democratic Rep. Dylan Roberts, who is leaving to run for the state Senate. Two political newcomers are battling to represent the district: Democratic high school teacher Meghan Lukens and Republican home-schooling mom Savannah Wolfson. Lukens ran unopposed in her primary, while Wolfson defeated her opponent Glenn Lowe III with 61.5% of the vote.

Lukens has raised an impressive total of $111,400 so far — making her the fourth-highest fundraiser on this list and highest earning candidate who is not already a sitting lawmaker. Wolfson has raised just over $69,600. Though Lukens is dominating the money race, she is one of only three Democratic candidates whose financial advantage has decreased since August, going from $48,000 over her opponent last month to around $42,000 now. Wolfson has also spent more than Lukens, spending $37,400 to Lukens’ $31,500.

House District 26 — including Moffat, Rio Blanco and Routt counties and parts of Eagle County — has more than 3,000 more Republican voters than Democrats, but nearly 28,000 unaffiliated voters. Even with the apparent right lean, the redistricting analysis puts the district at a 2.7% Democratic advantage.

Independent expenditure committees rack up donations in preparation for fall blitz

House District 59: Barbara McLachlan (D) v. Shelli Shaw (R)

Fundraising total: $175,932.25

Party advantage: $51,126.83 toward Democrats

District 59 is currently represented by Democratic Rep. Barbara McLachlan, who is seeking reelection. Though McLachlan enjoys an incumbency advantage and won her seat by some 11 percentage points in 2020 under the old maps, the Republican lean among active registered voters may give the GOP an opportunity to flip the seat this November. Republican candidate Shelli Shaw, a schoolteacher who moved to Colorado in 2021, is challenging McLachlan and ran unopposed in her June primary.

McLachlan has raised the third-highest amount on this list at $113,500, in addition to $3,000 in leftover funds from her previous campaign. Shaw has raised $62,400. McLachlan was already up $32,000 in fundraising in August, increasing her financial advantage by $19,000 in the last month. However, Shaw has spent nearly twice as much as McLachlan, with Shaw spending just under $20,000 to McLachlan’s $11,000. That leaves McLachlan with over $105,000 left to spend by November.

House District 59 displays another inconsistency between the redistricting analysis and the voter registration, with the former estimating a 2.2% Democratic advantage and the latter showing a nearly 4,400-voter Republican advantage, again leaving the election in the hands of the district’s massive unaffiliated population. The district includes Archuleta, La Plata and San Juan counties and parts of Montezuma County.

House District 13: Julie McCluskie (D) v. David Buckley (R)

Fundraising total: $174,282.13

Party advantage: $141,034.59 toward Democrats

District 13 is technically an open seat after Democratic Rep. Judy Amabile was drawn into District 49 instead; however, Democratic Rep. Julie McCluskie of District 61 was drawn into District 13 and is running for reelection. McCluskie is facing Republican David Buckley, a business owner who ran unopposed in his primary.

Though the District 13 race has only the fourth-highest fundraising total on this list, it has the largest disparity between candidates by far, with McCluskie raking in just under $157,700 to Buckley’s $16,600. That means McCluskie has earned nearly 10 times as much as her opponent. She also widened her fundraising advantage by around $58,000 compared to last year — the second-highest change beat only by Ortiz. McCluskie’s spending has only slightly outpaced Buckley’s, with the former spending around $19,200 and the latter $12,500.

District 13 — including Grand, Jackson, Lake, Park and Summit counties and parts of Chaffee County — has a considerable 5.4% Democratic advantage according to the redistricting analysis, but an over 1,100-voter surplus in Republicans compared to Democrats. 

House District 25: Tammy Story (D) v. Colin Larson (R)

Fundraising total: $142,873.53

Party advantage: $35,994.67 toward Democrats

In a rare situation, the race for District 25 in Jefferson County features two current lawmakers. Democratic Sen. Tammy Story is looking to switch to the House after she was redrawn into a strongly Republican-favoring Senate district, and Republican Rep. Colin Larson is running after being drawn out of House District 22. This is one of the seats the GOP is hoping to flip, currently being represented by Democratic Rep. Lisa Cutter, who was drawn out and is running for the state Senate.

Story is leading the fundraising with $89,000 to Larson’s $53,000, though Larson also took out $2,300 in loans. Story has nearly tripled the fundraising gap between her and Larson since last month, going from $12,000 in her favor in August, to just under $36,000 now. Story has also spent almost twice as much as Larson at $41,000 and $21,000 respectively.

House District 25 leans slightly Republican in both the redistricting analysis and the voter registration, with a 1.8% Republican advantage from redistricting and over 3,000 more active registered Republicans in the district than Democrats. Though, the more than 31,000 unaffiliated voters easily fill the gap.

House District 61: Eliza Hamrick (D) v. Dave Woolever (R)

Fundraising total: $124,346.32

Party advantage: $76,282.32 toward Democrats

District 61 is an open seat after Democratic Rep. Julie McCluskie was redrawn into District 13 and Rep. Tom Sullivan, newly drawn into the District 61, is running for the state Senate instead. Democrat Eliza Hamrick, a former high school teacher, and Republican Dave Woolever, an Air Force veteran and college professor, are set to face off for the seat in November after both candidates ran unopposed in the primary. 

Hamrick is dominating fundraising, having raised more than $100,000 compared to Woolever’s $24,000 in donations and $11,000 in loans. Except for Lukens, Hamrick is the only candidate who is not already a sitting lawmaker to reach six figures in fundraising. Hamrick was already up $63,000 in fundraising last month, but increased her lead by another $13,000. Hamrick has dished out just over $20,000 so far, and Woolever has spent around $7,000.

House District 61 in Arapahoe and Douglas counties leans very slightly toward Democrats according to the redistricting analysis, sitting at 0.5%. The split among registered voters is even closer, with only 401 of the more than 62,000 active registered voters separating the Republicans and Democrats, favoring the Republicans.

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House District 18: Marc Snyder (D) v. Shana Black (R)

Fundraising total: $109,604.53

Party advantage: $83,984.53 toward Democrats

District 18, in El Paso and Teller counties, is currently represented by Democratic Rep. Marc Snyder. Though Snyder won his 2020 race by 23 percentage points, he is expected to face a tougher bid for reelection with his new district boundaries. Republican candidate Shana Black, an attorney, stepped up to challenge Snyder, beating her primary challenger Summer Groubert 68% to 32% in June.

Snyder has raised over seven times more than Black so far, sitting at just under $96,800 to Black’s $12,800. That is a $24,000 increase in Snyder’s financial advantage compared to August. Snyder also has $10,000 in leftover funds from his previous campaign, while Black has taken out a nearly $11,000 loan. The spending is slightly closer, with Snyder spending around $45,000 and Black spending just over $20,000.

Based on the redistricting analysis, House District 18 is the most evenly divided district in the state, only leaning toward Democrats by 0.3%. However, voter registrations show that the district leans slightly to the right, with over 2,300 more active Republican voters than Democrats. Unaffiliated voters trump both parties, making up more than 27,000 of the over 58,000 registered voters. 

House District 19: Jennifer Lea Parenti (D) v. Dan Woog (R)

Fundraising total: $109,429.08

Party advantage: $12,377.98 toward Republicans

While technically an open seat due to the departure of Republican Rep. Tim Geitner, the race for District 19 includes Republican Rep. Dan Woog, drawn out of his District 63 after being elected in 2020 with just under 60% of the vote. Though District 19 leans slightly right, it’s substantially more balanced than Woog’s former district, promising a more competitive election than he’s faced before. The Democratic candidate facing Woog is Jennifer Lea Parenti, an Air Force veteran who ran unopposed in her primary.

District 19 is the only race on this list that financially favors the Republican candidate, with Woog raising just under $61,000 and Parenti raising $48,500. The gap in fundraising is the third smallest on this list; however, Woog overcame a deficit from August, with fundraising going from $2,000 in favor of Parenti last month to over $12,000 in favor of Woog now. Parenti is still outspending Woog, spending nearly $28,800 to Woog’s $13,500.

Both the redistricting analysis and voter registration results point to a small Republican advantage, with redistricting favoring Republicans by 1.5% and voter registration showing 786 more Republicans than Democrats. However, the more than 29,900 active unaffiliated voters in the 62,900-registered voter district assure that the election could go either way. The district is made up of several cities in Boulder and Weld counties. 

House District 16: Stephanie Vigil (D) v. Dave Donelson (R)

Fundraising total: $79,003.93

Party advantage: $5,033.93 toward Democrats

District 16’s current representative, Republican Rep. Andy Pico, was drawn out of the district, opening the door for Democrats to try to flip the seat. While the district seems to lean right, Democratic candidate Stephanie Vigil — a community organizer and second-time House candidate — has led in fundraising compared to her Republican opponent Dave Donelson — an Army veteran and Colorado Springs City Council member. Both candidates ran unopposed in their primaries.

Vigil has raised just over $42,000 and Donelson has raised just under $37,000. This is the smallest fundraising gap out of any race on this list, thanks largely to Donelson gaining financial ground. In August, Vigil led fundraising by over $19,000, but now Donelson has narrowed the difference to only $5,000. However, Vigil also took out a $4,500 loan and has $1,200 left over from her previous campaign, giving her more funds to work with. Vigil has spent over $30,600 and Donelson has spent around $4,800.

House District 16 in El Paso County appears to have a Republican advantage for both the registered voters and the redistricting analysis, with the former favoring Republicans by around 1,850 voters and the latter favoring Republicans by 3.1%.

House District 28: Sheila Lieder (D) v. Dan Montoya (R)

Fundraising total: $61,542.00

Party advantage: $12,048.00 toward Democrats

Rounding out the top 10 is District 28, an open seat left by Democratic Rep. Kerry Tipper who chose not to run for reelection. Candidates Sheila Lieder — a Democratic member of the Tri-County Workforce Development Board — and Dan Montoya, a Republican Marine Corps veteran — are running for the seat. Lieder only began her campaign in August after Democratic nominee Leanne Emm dropped out of the race due to a health condition.

District 28 has the lowest fundraising total of the list, with Lieder raising just under $36,800 and Montoya raising $24,700. Though the totals are smaller, Lieder raised all of her funds within the last month, reporting zero dollars back in August. Lieder also overcame a deficit to pass Montoya in fundraising, as last month he reported $4,000. This pushed one of the GOP’s only financially advantageous races back into the favor of Democrats. Lieder has also outspent Montoya so far, $7,200 to $1,700.

House District 28 in Jefferson County has the closest active voter registration composition of any district on this list, with Republicans outnumbering Democrats by only 159 registrations. Despite the minor Republican lead, the district also has more than 28,000 unaffiliated voters and a 2.3% Democratic advantage based on the redistricting analysis.

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