Much like Congress, the Colorado Legislature’s leadership has varied over the past few decades. 

In 2022, Colorado Democrats secured a supermajority in both the House, which they still maintain, holding 46 of 65 seats.

They need to hold on to at least 43 seats to keep this supermajority. Losing three or more seats in the upcoming election would strip them of their supermajority, along with its biggest perks — being able to override vetoes without needing the opposite party, and being able to refer ballot measures to the ballot in upcoming elections. 

As the upcoming election approaches, the question is whether the Democrats will retain that supermajority or lose any key seats to the Republicans.

Dems are “optimistic” they can hold on to their supermajority

In 2018, Colorado Democrats accomplished something that would have been unimaginable two decades earlier — They secured a supermajority in both the House and the Senate. Although they lost their Senate supermajority two years later, they still maintain it in the House, holding 46 of 65 seats.

They need to hold on to at least 44 seats to keep this supermajority. Losing three or more seats in the upcoming election would strip them of their supermajority, along with its biggest perk — Being able to pass legislation without needing any votes from the opposing party.

With several highly competitive races expected this November, Democrats face a genuine possibility of losing their supermajority. House Majority Leader Monica Duran of Wheat Ridge, however, isn’t concerned because of the positive feedback she says she receives from voters during the interim.

“Based on the conversations I’m having with different voters throughout the state, they’re really proud of the work we’ve done,” she said. “I’m really optimistic, to be honest with you.”

Duran said many of the Coloradans she’s spoken to are less concerned with party lines and more focused on issues like housing and healthcare. She added that focusing on these issues is crucial for maintaining a Democratic majority in both chambers, as it can attract undecided or unaffiliated voters.

“Obviously, there are issues that we’re not gonna agree on, but I think there are more things we can find that we have in common,” she said. “Public safety is one of them, and obviously housing. I think we need to look at the bigger picture and find those areas, and that’s always my goal in managing when we’re in session.”

It’s anyone’s guess who will win this purple district

Republicans currently have the advantage in the race for House District 19, which includes the towns of Erie, Firestone, Dacono, Frederick and Del Camino. The district is represented by Democrat Jennifer Parenti, who announced last month that she was dropping out of her reelection bid.

Parenti’s replacement, who is to be selected by a vacancy committee on Aug. 8, will have just three months to campaign and raise funds to maintain Democratic control of this profoundly purple district.

Republican candidate Dan Woog, who served in the Legislature for one term but was defeated by Parenti by just three percentage points in 2022, said his opponent’s dropping out of the race has not allowed him to relax.

“As soon as I heard that my opponent would not be seeking reelection, I made it a point to work even harder,” he said. “I’m making more phone calls to raise money, recruiting more campaign volunteers, and walking extra hours every day of the week. I am well aware of how close of a race this was last time, and I believe it will still be fairly close even with a new opponent.”

Despite the tough race ahead, Woog said he believes the GOP will win enough House races to remove the Democrats’ supermajority.

“We have some very strong candidates running throughout Colorado and great support from the House Caucus and current legislators who are putting a lot of effort into winning seats,” he said.

Ryan Gonzalez, a Republican candidate for House District 50, echoed Woog’s sentiment.

“Getting the majority back in the House is next to impossible, but there is a difference between Dems having just the majority rather than the supermajority they enjoy now,” he said. “Republicans need to maintain their current seats, which I believe they will, and flip at least three more to give Republicans more leverage on committees and negotiating power on the floor. That scenario is entirely possible.”

Duran and the Democrats, however, remain optimistic they can replicate their success from 2022.

“I think we won that district two years ago by 1,400 votes, so it’s doable,” said Duran. “Ideally, would we have loved to have had six months to a year of notice [that Parenti was dropping out]? Absolutely. But I think with the structure we have set up and the fact that we did win with 1,400 votes last time, as well as the foundation that has been set over the last two years, I’m really confident. I’m not gonna tell you it’s gonna be easy. Whoever gets that vacancy will have to work their butt off and be out there, but we are ready to help support them. We have volunteers ready to go, so we’re gonna do our best and we’re gonna work really hard, but at the end of the day, it’s up to the voters. Hopefully, they can see that in the past two years, Representative Parenti was here. She listened. She advocated. And she worked for her district.”

Other key races to watch

Democrats won seats in several other Republican-leaning districts in 2022 and are determined to keep them. However, many victories were narrow, with six races decided by less than 1,500 votes. This election will also be the first Senate contest since the 2021 redistricting.

Here are a few key races that could impact whether the Democrats keep their supermajorities this coming session:

• House District 16: Currently held by Rep. Stephanie Vigil, this district includes the Colorado Springs neighborhoods of Roswell, Elsmere, and Knob Hill. Vigil won her election by just 710 votes in 2022 against Republican Dave Donelson. According to previous election data from the Independent Redistricting Commissions, the district tends to lean 2% in Republicans’ favor. In November, Vigil will face GOP challenger Rebecca Keltie, a Navy veteran and former engineer.

• House District 25: House District 25, which has historically leaned 2% in Republicans’ favor, is currently represented by Democrat Tammy Story, a former state Senator. Story defeated incumbent Colin Larsen in 2022 by just one percentage point. This election, she is running against former law enforcement officer George Mumma.

• House District 43: This district, which includes most of Highlands Ranch, is the most Republican-leaning House District currently represented by a Democrat. Incumbent Rep. Bob Marshall, a Marine Corps veteran and lawyer, won the 2022 election by less than a percentage point. He is running against Republican Matt Burcham in a district that had never previously elected a Democrat.  

• House District 50: Currently represented by Democrat Rep. Mary Young, this district includes the city of Greeley and has historically favored Republicans by 6%. Young won the 2022 election by just 330 votes, the smallest margin of any House race that year. She faces Republican Ryan Gonzalez in this year’s race.

• Senate District 5: This district is currently held by Republican Rep. Perry Will, who is not seeking reelection. Representative Marc Catlin of Montrose will face Democratic challenger Cole Buerger for the seat. The district leans 3% in the GOP’s favor.

• Senate District 6: Republican Incumbent Sen. Cleave Simpson is running against Democrat Vivian Smotherman in this district, which includes Durango and part of Montrose. The district leans 1% in Democrats’ favor.

• Senate District 12: With current Republican Rep. Bob Gardner term-limited, this district will see Colorado Springs Democrat Rep. Marc Snyder facing El Paso County Commissioner Stan VanderWerf. This district, which includes eastern Colorado Springs and Fountain, has historically leaned 2% in Republicans’ favor.

• Senate District 13: Stretching from Brighton to Greeley, this district is currently represented by Sen. Kevin Priola, who is term limited. Priola started his legislative career as a Republican but switched parties in 2022. Republican Scott Bright, a business owner, will face Democrat Matt Johnston, a member of Brighton City Council. The district leans 4% in the GOP’s favor.

• Senate District 16: Incumbent Sen. Chris Kolker will compete against Republican challenger Robyn Carnes for this seat, which includes parts of Littleton and Centennial. Historical election data does not show a clear advantage for either party in this district.

When asked whether the Democrats could lose any of these contested races, Duran maintained her confidence.

“From everything that I’m hearing in the conversations I’m having, I’m confident we’ll be able to hold onto [our seats],” she said. “I think the two things I hear the most from voters is that they want us to collaborate and work together. They’re worried about paying their rent and putting food on their table, and there’s no room or time for infighting with anyone. They want us to do our job, what they elected us to the Legislature to do. There’s 100 of us out of the entire state — that’s a small number, so we should remain humble, focused, and transparent, and remember who sends us there to do the work that we were elected to do.”

For his part, Gonzalez seemed confident his constituents would return some of these seats to the Republicans.

“House District 50 is home to thousands of hard-working Weld County residents who can remember what life was like before Colorado turned purple,” he said. “I fully believe they are ready even more this election than they were in 2022 to hold those responsible for Colorado’s problems accountable. I’m focused on my own race, so I won’t predict other races, but there are many tossup districts currently held by Democrats that are likely to turn red in November.”

The future direction of the party unclear, says Majority Leader

Despite Duran’s warning against infighting, conflicts between the moderate and progressive members of the House Democrats have occurred throughout the past several sessions. Similarly, divisions have emerged between the more far-right members of the Republican Party and those more toward the center.

Two of the House’s most progressive members are the Denver Democrats Reps. Elisabeth Epps and Tim Hernandez lost their primary elections to more moderate opponents. While this may influence the upcoming session, Duran hasn’t made any predictions yet.

She said it’s “too hard to say” what direction the party will take when the session convenes in January but emphasized that under the golden dome, Democrats from all ends of the political spectrum will have room.