Remember when an impromptu night out with dinner and drinks was a financially forgettable lark?

The Brewers Association’s Bart Watson does, too.

But things have changed.

“We’ve all had that experience in the last few years, where you go out, you have a couple beers, you have a meal, you see the check, and your brain just can’t fully process how it’s that high,” said Watson, the Boulder nonprofit’s incoming CEO and president, and current VP of strategy and membership, in a Dec. 19 member webinar about the current state and future of craft beer in 2025.

“That might be one reason we’re seeing customers then just add a little bit less beer onto that check the next time they go out,” Watson said.

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Or, to go out less frequently. Or perhaps not at all. The amount of time Americans spent face-to-face socializing with others was already on the wane before the pandemic sent the trend spiking.

Financial realities and inflation arrived to double-down on the challenges facing brewers of all sizes.

The beer sticker shock is real, on all fronts. Sales are down and costs for business owners are up. Craft beer package prices, on average, now hover in the $11 to $12 range, rising to $14 or more for specialty and seasonal 4- and 6-packs in some markets. Even modern happy hour draft prices ring in at what we used to pay for a sixer of indie beer once upon a time. Brewery owners say today’s increased menu prices have likely kept some potential patrons away, but don’t come close to covering the higher costs of doing business.

Before wrapping with a mild chaser of hope (which we’ll get to), the recent look back and look ahead brought sobering but expected news from the Brewers Association, which tracks industry trends and supports and advocates for member breweries and companies adjacent to the craft brewing industry,

For the first time since the early 2000s, brewery closings outpaced openings nationwide, with 335 businesses hanging a fresh shingle and 399 calling it quits in 2024.

Saturation, in some areas, has become more than a dreaded concept hovering on the horizon.

“Closing rates range a lot by state,” said the BA’s staff economist Matt Gacioch. “Markets where there is more competition, that are more developed and mature, we’re generally seeing higher closings.”

But, he added, “there are still parts of the country … states that had zero closings this year, where there’s still more opportunity for growth.”

Depending on who you ask, Colorado Springs may not have breached its tap-out threshold (aka the dreaded saturation mark), but nonetheless in the last two years, the southern Front Range craft beer hotbed has seen the shuttering of Rocky Mountain Brewery, Pikes Peak Brewing Lager House, Smiling Toad (now South Park Brewing), Red Swing (now Urban Animal No. 2), Batch Slap, Bell Brothers and, most recently, FH Beerworks. Though its brand identity and flagships aren’t going away, Pikes Peak Brewing Co. was recently acquired by the Springs’ Goat Patch Brewing Co. after founding owner Chris Wright announced he was retiring from suds — a loss that’s not technically a closure, but still stings for longtime fans of the iconic Monument brewery.

All things considered, the percentage of income that consumers spend on alcoholic libations remained steady at 1% to 1.5% of total spending in 2024, according to the BA, a statistic that likely reflects, at least in part, the bump in pricing and expansion and diversification of taproom options in recent years.

“The data we have suggests that at the brewery sales are not growing year over year. And we do see that breweries are compensating by selling more food and other beverage alcohol,” Watson said.

Overall, IPA continued to dominate craft sales in 2024, with a growth in drinker interest in libations that exist on the fringes of ABV content: Low or no-alcohol, as well as those that pack a bigger-than-usual punch, as consumers seek more “bang for the buck” from their buys, Gacioch said.

This shift in trends puts craft brewers in a “really interesting position,” Gacioch said.

Craft beer “had been for a long time the moderate middle in terms of alcohol content,” he said. “Understanding that consumers are continuing to evolve will hopefully also be an indication of how products can and perhaps should evolve as well.”

Taste-wise, “the number one flavor characteristic that consumers were looking for in this year’s survey was crisp,” Gacioch said.

While the popularity of lagers and IPAs is growing, seasonals are feeling the squeeze in the package sales market as beers compete with increasingly popular hard seltzers, marijuana-infused beverages and canned cocktails for shelf space at liquor stores, according to the BA.

Whether, and how, that trend plays out in at-the-bar draft sales may be another matter, Watson pointed out.

Seasonal beers could “continue to drop further in distribution, but continue to flourish in taprooms, and maybe even grow in taprooms if consumers are less able to find that seasonal variety in their off-premise retailers,” he said.

The good news for the craft brewing industry in 2025 may be more about maintaining perspective about the bad news from before.

“If we compare craft brewing to other industries, say wider hospitality or bars and restaurants, breweries still have a relatively low closure rate,” Watson said.

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While closures likely will continue in 2025, as a challenging market — and the anticipated trickledown of inflation and tariffs — marches on, he said, the onus will be on brewers to carve out a signature place, in budgets, souls and schedules of customers.

“We continue to see that restaurant hours have been curtailed a little bit. There’s less of that late night,” Watson said.

And being the most affordable beer brand in the current environment isn’t necessarily a go-to strategy either, Watson said.

“I think this is an important piece of the puzzle to understand that it’s not as simple as lower-priced brands are selling better,” Watson said.

The rub, for brewers seeking to carve out a thriving niche in a tough environment, lies in finding a way to make their brewery, and brand, a destination beyond what it provides on taps and in cans and bottles, he said.

To that end, more independent brewers are being creative about how they produce and market their beer, and “playing in the ‘beyond beer’ space,” with sodas, hard ciders and seltzers, Watson said.

He predicted that companies will continue to expand their concepts in 2025, adding more food options, partnering with other brewers on specialty releases and tie-ins, and turning taprooms into social hubs that offer everything from trivia competitions to group yoga, stand-up comedy and live music.

Also, lots and lots of beer. The “best performing taprooms” in 2025 likely will be those that offer patrons a head-spinning variety of libations, Watson said.

“I think there’s still opportunities here if you’re really differentiating that brand and creating a differentiation in the customer’s mind as well,” he said.

Openings? Closings? Numerous Colorado Springs-area stores and restaurants came and went in 2024