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Analyzing the Western Conference playoff contenders | NHL Insider

It’s the NHL’s worst nightmare.

No, it’s not a star player showing personality.

It’s the idea that as many as seven Western Conference teams will have nothing to play for over the final two months of the season. That’s usually not good for ticket sales.

A quick peek at the standings Thursday showed the top seven playoff spots are all but locked up. The NHL wants parity and has it with those seven teams. The problem is the rest of the conference looks… bad.

Let’s take a look at the playoff teams in the Western Conference and how they stack up as we head towards the stretch run of the season:

The No. 8 seed

Let’s get this one out of the way. There will likely be one sub-par team making the Western Conference playoffs as the gap between the top seven and the rest is significant.

The top seven all have positive goal differentials. Every other team sits in the negative. Those top seven teams all have at least 22 regulation wins. No other Western Conference team has more than 17. Yes, that’s a gap, which is good news for whatever team locks down the top playoff seed in the conference.

Calgary, Vancouver, and St. Louis are the three teams with the best shot at securing that final spot. Calgary and Vancouver both have benefited from the extra point for losing in overtime, as they have a combined 17 overtime losses between them. The Blues might be the most dangerous bubble team, as they’ve looked significantly better since Jim Montgomery got to town. None of these teams are likely to go on a long playoff run, but you never know in the NHL.

The Avalanche

This season has been nothing short of a rollercoaster and it doesn’t seem like the ride will end anytime soon. Poor goaltending actively hurt the Avalanche during the first two months so general manager Chris MacFarland fixed the situation. Since then, other issues have risen up. Colorado team lacks depth up front and on the blue line that must be addressed prior to the trade deadline.

Even with those depth issues, Colorado has the high-end talent to give every team in the conference issues. Its top players have been heavily taxed this season, so will they have enough gas left in the tank come playoff time?

Winnipeg Jets

You might not find a more structured team in the conference, and when things break down, they gave the best goalie in the league to back them up.

That works great in the regular season. But as we saw last year, if Connor Hellebuyck is off his game, they can be exposed. Their trade deadline addition last year (Sean Monahan) was a non-factor in round one against the Avalanche. But they have the cap space and assets to make a splash again at the deadline this season.

Dallas Stars

If you want a team that can truly weaponize their cap space at the trade deadline, look no further than the Stars. With Tyler Seguin on long-term injury reserve, they have space to make a big splash. With some of their core players aging and some important players up for new contracts after the season, they might go all-in this season. They will be in the market for a top-four defenseman and if they can find one, will be a tough team to eliminate in the postseason.

Minnesota Wild

The Avalanche haven’t had to face Kirill Kaprizov yet, but it’s hard to find a more dynamic player in the NHL this season. If not for an injury, he might be the clear frontrunner for the Hart Trophy. This does feel like the most vulnerable of the top seven teams in the West. They’re a bottom-five possession team in the NHL and don’t have much cap space available to make a big move at the deadline.

Vegas Golden Knights

What do the Golden Knights have up their sleeves at the trade deadline? They always do something and it usually comes out of left field. No team wants to match up against them in the playoffs, and if the postseason started today, this would be Colorado’s first round opponent.

Not ideal for the Avalanche.

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This team has skill, is difficult to play against, and has a championship pedigree. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if they lift the Stanley Cup again.

Edmonton Oilers

Avalanche fans saw it first-hand last week: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are a nightmare to play against. And the rest of the team is really good as well. They’re a top-three team when it comes to possession and expected goal percentage. Last year was not a fluke. Can you trust their goaltending? Maybe not, but this is an excellent team and will be a tough out.

Los Angeles Kings

This is a good team. But for what seems like the fifth-straight year, it’s not a great one. It’s been the same story for a while now: they’re a good team with a lot of good players, but they have no elite players. In the playoffs, that really matters. Plus, they seem destined to match up against either Vegas or Edmonton in round one. 

Good luck with that.

What I’m hearing

—Chicago general manager Kyle Davidson has been present in the press box at the last two Avalanche games. He spent a lot of time chatting with Chris MacFarland during the first intermission Wednesday night. The Blackhawks have also been scouting the Colorado Eagles extensively of late.

None of this means guarantees a deal, but you can be sure the teams have spoken. Keep in mind that Buffalo’s assistant general manager was in Denver for a few games before the Casey Mittelstadt-Bo Byram deal went down.

Sources told The Denver Gazette the Avalanche have checked in on Seth Jones, but they’re not the only team that has done so. There’s no way the Avalanche could take on his full contract, so there would have to be some maneuvering and retention done for something to get finalized there. Either way, a general manager doesn’t typically spend that much time looking at a team if it’s a standard trade for a rental.

—Sam Malinski got the message after three games in the press box.

“Hasn’t been a whole lot of conversation (with the staff), but I don’t think there needs to be,” Malinski said. “I know what I need to do.”

Bednar liked his game against the Jets. On the radio this week, MacFarland said the top four on defense has been taxed too much this season. Malinski finding his game again could help in that department.

What I’m seeing

—Miles Wood has joined the team in a regular jersey and will be going on the road trip. There’s a chance he will rejoin the lineup before the Avalanche play again at Ball Arena. The concern will be how long he stays in the lineup.

Wood revealed he’s dealt with a back injury and it began to bother him before the playoffs last season.

“I hope to be back 100%, but knowing back problems and talking to players that have dealt with the same thing, it’s something I’ll have to take care of probably the rest of my career,” Wood said. 

Not a perfect situation for someone in his second year of a six-year contract.

—Colorado’s second line was dominant against the Stars, but so bad against the Wild the staff changed up lines again. The good news is they’re keeping Artturi Lehkonen and Mittelstadt together. Lehkonen can do a lot of little things to help Mittelstadt and they had good chemistry together last season.

What I’m thinking

—While the Avalanche have dealt with injuries all season, none have really been to their star players. That’s why Avalanche fans might be holding their breath during the 4 Nations Face-Off. It would be just Colorado’s luck for someone to get hurt in that tournament.

—I voted last year on the NHL Awards and chose Brock Faber over Connor Bedard for the Calder. The voting didn’t got that way, but I felt Faber made the bigger impact. This year’s Calder vote is going to be all over the place. There are four legit candidates: Macklin Celebrini, Matvei Michkov, Lane Hutson and Dustin Wolf. It’s very difficult for goalies to win this award, but Wolf is a big reason why the Flames are in a playoff spot right now.

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