Could the baseball gods finally smile on the Rockies?

Believe it or not, the potential is there in the midst of a truly miserable season.

The Rockies hold the fourth overall pick in the 2025 MLB draft scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. Sunday as part of MLB’s All-Star Game festivities in Atlanta.

While much of what could happen with the fourth pick depends on the three teams picking ahead of the Rockies, Colorado eyes will be on what happens with the No. 1 overall selection.

The Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners hold the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 selections, respectively. Washington reportedly is deciding between Louisiana State University starting pitcher Kade Anderson and Stillwater (Okla.) High School shortstop Ethan Holliday with the first pick. However, recent moves within the Nationals organization may have shifted the franchise’s intentions at the top of the draft.

Washington on Sunday relieved general manager Mike Rizzo of his duties. That move could pay dividends for the Rockies, according to ESPN MLB draft insider Kiley McDaniel.

“The perception around the league is that they (the Nationals) are likely to go a little safer,” McDaniel said. “I’ll say that I saw it as a virtual coin flip, maybe 60-40, maybe 50-50 between Holliday and Anderson before the news. I think after the news, it’s now a little more likely that it goes to Anderson, but that might be from 50-50 to 60-40.”

Holliday is the son of Matt Holliday, who was drafted by the Rockies in the seventh round of the 1998 MLB draft and played for Colorado for five seasons from before a trade to the Oakland A’s. Matt Holliday’s slide across home plate in Game 163 of the 2007 season against the San Diego Padres sent the Rockies into the National League Division Series and remains an iconic moment in franchise history.

While the Holliday family has connections to the Rockies, Ethan has the skill set to potentially impact any MLB team — and soon. It could be a similar path blazed by his brother Jackson, who was selected by the Baltimore Orioles with the top overall pick in the 2022 MLB draft and made his Orioles debut on April 10, 2024.

Knowing his lineage and the family connection to the Rockies, Ethan slipping to No. 4 to Colorado would be a best-case scenario, McDaniel said.

“I would say what they (the Rockies) need is stars and standout players, and a lot of them,” McDaniel said. “I would say it’s a little over 50% likely that they will get him at four, because I think he either goes one or four.”

Another reason McDaniel said Holliday could slip to fourth and the Rockies is that he believes Colorado may be willing to overpay the $8,770,900 allocated to the fourth pick by MLB this year. Colorado has a bonus pool of $15,723,400 this season, the sixth-highest amount among MLB’s 30 teams.

Last season, the Rockies picked infielder Charlie Condon third overall and inked him to a $9.25 million signing bonus, matching the biggest in MLB draft history.

“I think if they get him (Holliday) at four, it might be for the highest bonus in the draft,” McDaniel said. “I think it might be one of those situations where Charlie Condon got overpaid relative to some of the other players a little bit later. I think that’s how this one is sort of lining up.

“If (Holliday) doesn’t become the first pick, that will be what happens as a result. I think that’s why two and three aren’t looking at him as much, because they would then have to jump that price. When the family has enough money to say no to that much money, then you have to take them seriously.”

While much of the focus will be what happens with the Rockies and the fourth overall pick, McDaniel said he is watching to see what the organization does with its later selections. Colorado also has the 45th, 74th and 77th picks in the draft’s first three rounds.

“I think the real question will be, what do they do at some of their later picks? I think they’ve slowly evolved a little bit. They were sinker-only in terms of pitchers that they would take in the draft until a couple of years ago (2023) when they took Chase Dollander and Sean Sullivan, who are the opposite kind of pitcher,” McDaniel said. “They’ve opened themselves up to more sorts of pitchers. I think we’ve seen them go high school hitter and high school pitcher. We’ve seen them do all the different sorts of things, so I’m intrigued to see what they do in the later rounds.”

Rockies general manager Bill Schmidt told The Denver Gazette that Colorado getting Nolan Arenado with the 59th overall pick in the 2009 MLB draft “meant a lot.” Those are the kind of late picks McDaniel said he is watching to understand the Rockies’ direction.

“The industry is curious who the second and third pick will be, and what that reveals, if they’re shifting strategies at all about a better way to find impact on later picks,” McDaniel said of the Rockies. “They haven’t been quite as good at that. They’ve been better at that internationally, but I don’t think they’ve had an above-average rate of hits after the first round.”