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Betting: How to approach Game 3 of the NBA Finals

By Joe Metz July 10, 2021 | updated 4 years ago

Game 3 of the NBA Finals tips off at 8 p.m. ET in Milwaukee Sunday, as the Bucks look to get in the win column and climb back into this series. The Suns currently hold a 2-0 lead. While I typically outline my two favorite bets of the slate, with only one game, I will simply break down how I am approaching Game 3 from a betting angle.

 • The spread: MIL -4 (-110, BetMGM)

• The moneyline: MIL -175 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

• The total: over 221.5 (-112, FanDuel SportsBook), under 221.5 (-108, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Despite being down 2-0 in the series, the Bucks come in as four-point favorites with the expectation that home-court advantage will turn this series around. Removing home court from the equation and looking at the playoffs overall, the Bucks have posted a 10-9 record against the spread (52.6%), good for the fourth-best clip of all playoff teams.

The problem here is the fact that the Suns (1305, 72.2%) have posted the best record ATS in the playoffs. Factoring in home court, it’s easy to see why the Bucks are favored despite the two teams’ ATS records. The Bucks are 7-1 at home in the playoffs with an average margin of victory of 13.4 points. It’s made a very clear difference for this team and with their backs against the wall, I expect the same on Sunday.

I have confidence in the Bucks -4 here, but if you’re feeling more conservative, their -175 moneyline is a safer bet. The total of this game (221.5) has crept north as the series has gone on, after we’ve had totals of 223 and 226 through the first two games. This feels like an appropriate line for what we’ve seen from the first two games, but it’s worth noting that both Phoenix (8-9-1, 47.1%) and Milwaukee (8-10-1, 44.4%) have tended to sail under the implied totals in the playoffs rather than over.

At home, I expect the Bucks’ defensive intensity to step up, and while the first two games scraped by the over 221.5 (barely), I lean under here, as the Suns shot 20-40 from 3 last game in what was a completely unsustainable offensive showing. If the Bucks step up defensively, we should have a much lower-scoring game regardless of whether their offense steps up.

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